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New Research Group on Biogeochemical Prediction

New Research Group on Biogeochemical Prediction

Sep 21, 2026

Researcher Hongmei Li has been appointed Research Group Leader in the recently established Department of Ocean Biosphere Dynamics. Together with her group, she will look into the prediction of ocean stressors and extremes.

Biogeochemical Prediction

The carbon cycle is central to the Earth system: It connects climate, ocean and land. It regulates the rising CO₂-level in our atmosphere and has a key function for possible climate risks and mitigation measures. A key scientific challenge is to determine how internal climate variability and external forcing interact with ocean biogeochemistry and marine ecosystems. These interactions control how much carbon can be stored in the ocean as well as the effect of the combined pressure of ocean warming, acidification and deoxygenation on the ocean.

“In my group, we will investigate how the carbon cycle and ecosystem-relevant ocean stressors and extremes can be predicted across timescales - from interannual variability to long-term climate change and decarbonisation,” says Hongmei Li, who has more than two decades of experience in Earth-system modelling. “By integrating Earth System modelling, artificial intelligence and machine learning with observational evidence, we will connect fundamental process understanding with vision on improving prediction. Our interdisciplinary research will trace how processes from microbial activity to large-scale ocean circulation shape carbon-cycle variability, ecosystem stress and climate feedbacks.”

About Hongmei Li

In her research, the newly appointed Research Group Leader focuses on understanding variability within the Earth system and predicting how the global carbon cycle and climate respond to natural fluctuations and human activities. Before joining the Max Planck Institute for Marine Microbiology in May 2026, the climate scientist completed her PhD at the Chinese Academy of Sciences and subsequently worked at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology and the Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon in Hamburg, Germany.

“A central contribution of my work has been to establish carbon-cycle prediction as a core part of Earth-system prediction”, Hongmei Li explains. “I led the first study to demonstrate that variations in North Atlantic carbon uptake can be predicted several years in advance. While digging into the underlying mechanisms, I further developed the prediction system that brings carbon–climate feedbacks into Earth system prediction.” Hongmei Li initiated and continues to coordinate an international multi-model CO₂prediction effort and is contributing to several Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).